Alnylam's 53% three-year revenue CAGR is product revenue, not milestones: decomposed, the recurring product-plus-royalty line compounded at 51.9% against 53.0% total, so only 1.1pp of the demonstrated growth comes from the lumpy collaboration line. The mechanism is a single named product in a single named indication — AMVUTTRA (vutrisiran) in ATTR-CM, US-launched Q1-2025, $970m to $2,314m of annual revenue in one year and $890m in Q1-2026 alone. The screen's revenue input was 301 days stale and understated TTM revenue by 27.3%, because this issuer's SEC XBRL companyfacts feed stops at 2026-04-06 and does not contain the Q1-2026 10-Q. Corrected from the filings directly.
How to read this
This is an analysis, not a position. The memo scores every Criteria and blocks on none of them. Whether an analysis justifies a position is a question about a particular book, and two books answer it differently — so this page carries no Long, Short, Watchlist or Avoid verdict. The previous verdict has been retired.
Every Criteria returns PASS / FAIL / INDETERMINATE, and carries a type. BINDING criteria are admission tests for a long-only absolute-return strategy. MEASURED criteria are always scored and stored, and never block — they inform timing, sizing or a future strategy. A missing input is INDETERMINATE, never FAIL.
Two valuation outputs, over two horizons. The implied-path test (reverse DCF) asks what today's price requires over five years and whether the business has demonstrated it; the 12-month target asks what the name is likely to trade at, on near-term consensus and the name's own multiple history. Neither replaces the other. Sensitivity is run over the exit multiple, never over scenario probabilities.
Momentum is entry timing only. It governs when to enter a position the thesis already justifies, never whether to own one.
Key findings
- The trap does not bite. Decomposed, only 1.1pp of ALNY's 53.0% three-year CAGR comes from the lumpy collaboration line; recurring product-plus-royalty revenue compounded at 51.9%. Management guides the lumpy line DOWN 31-45% in FY2026 while guiding product revenue UP 64-77%.
- Mechanism: AMVUTTRA (vutrisiran) in ATTR-CM. $970m -> $2,314m of annual revenue in one year; $889.9m in Q1-2026 alone (+187% YoY); US AMVUTTRA $631m -> $1,731m. HELIOS-B showed amyloid regression in 22% of treated patients and none on placebo.
- SCREEN DEFECT: the screen's TTM revenue was 301 days stale and 27.3% understated, because this issuer's SEC XBRL companyfacts feed stops at 2026-04-06 and omits the Q1-2026 10-Q. HALO's feed, checked the same way, is current — so this is issuer-level staleness, which is the hardest kind to catch.
- Implied-path test PASSES with a +41.1pp margin: the price requires 10.7% revenue CAGR at 27.4x EBIT (GROWTH_MATCHED) and a 35% terminal margin, against 51.9% demonstrated. Even at a punitive 15x exit the requirement is 24.9%. The worst corner tested (15x and 25% margin) requires 33.6%, still 18.3pp below demonstrated.
- 12-month target $481, +66.7%, at a multiple in the 9th percentile of ALNY's own history. The bear case uses a multiple BELOW anything ALNY has traded at in 4.5 years and still produces +35%. The risk to the target is revenue, not multiple.
- Accounting: new guidance restated 9M-2025 net income up $74.9m (+58.8%) with no revenue effect; Distributor A went from 29% to 45% of gross revenue in one year and is never mentioned in the prepared text; SBC is 9.4% of revenue and excluded in full from every non-GAAP measure.
- Mention-frequency: ATTR-CM was 0.0 per 10k words for six straight quarters then stepped to 29.7 at launch and 36.7 now. 'obesity' makes its first-ever appearance in 25Q4. 'acoramidis' appears zero times in fourteen quarters — the corpus will not tell you about the competition.
- Options are not viable at size: Mar-2027 total call OI is 326 contracts; Jan-2027 quoted size is 1-17 contracts on a 10.4% bid-ask. The vehicle is the common.
Sections
Disclosed limitations
- No consensus estimates. Alpha Vantage quota (25/day, shared) was exhausted by parallel agents at run time — verified. No Street NTM revenue, EPS or price target. Consensus Criteria is INDETERMINATE and the 12-month target's sanity band against a professional's target is NOT COMPUTABLE and is left blank rather than estimated.
- Mention-frequency corpus is EDGAR 8-K Ex-99.1 prepared text, not transcripts (Alpha Vantage quota exhausted). There is no Q&A, so the prepared-remarks/Q&A split required by mention-frequency.md cannot be reported.
- FY2027 revenue is a HOUSE estimate, not guidance and not consensus. The 12-month target depends on it and the dependence is isolated in the model notes.
- The 'obesity' mention emergence is an OPEN QUESTION, not a thesis. ALN-2232 is a Phase 1 asset with no disclosed data and no value is ascribed to it anywhere.
- The blended royalty rate payable on AMVUTTRA net sales is not disclosed. COGS at 20.0% of product revenue is an observation, not a forecast.
- The screen's 'required CAGR 33.4%' could not be reproduced because its parameters are in no artefact present in this worktree. It is not used.
- No regressed beta. WACC of 10% is the framework default and is named as such.
- The EV/TTM-sales history uses annual capital-structure snapshots, not daily. The current-day figure (9.22x) is exact.